• Their financial situation is worse than alarming! “Twitching like a fingerOn the trigger of a gun.” -Paul Simon Uh oh!  China is making things feel twitchy! We are always on the alert for the most likely trigger of the coming economic calamity.  The thing that ends the made-up, manipulated money system and remonetizes honest money.  There are many candidates today.  War.  US banks.  Bidenomics.  A debt crisis.  A Fed screwup.   But if we had to guess, it looks like China. We are very concerned that this could be the one.  The block in the Jenga tower that makes the whole thing tumble.  The straw… There is generally a trigger, a single event that sets the whole house of cards collapsing.  It was the failure of Creditanstalt 1931, Austria’s largest bank, that was the first major bank collapse of the Great Depression. Today it looks like China.   For some background, please review our recent article China’s Coming Collapse. Kyle […]

  • …and what it could mean for us. China is a hot mess. We have only occasionally addressed China’s rickety economic conditions and not written much about them, but you should know how vulnerable things are in that centrally-planned economy. Youth unemployment in China is running at about 15 percent.  Property prices in December fell at the fastest rate since 2015, not comforting to a middle-class heavily invested in real estate.  A restive population makes for a nervous ruling class! Here’s a chart of China’s Hang Seng index of stocks traded on the Hong Kong exchange.  It has fallen in half in the last three years. Government debt is a huge problem.  It’s bad enough that Moody’s has lowered its rating on China’s sovereign debt from stable to negative. Kyle Bass of Bass of Hayman Capital Management says China is experiencing “a full banking system collapse.”   To put a fine point on it, Bass says local governments in China have […]